green papers
SCENARIO PLANNING

One-off or dramatic events - such as the partial meltdown of the Fukushima nuclear power plant - can have profound and unexpected effects on all sectors of the energy market, including possible sudden reversals of power plant fleet build strategies and the rapid re-tooling of renewables funding and governmental policy.

Although it is an important component of the strategic planning process, the projection of trends will only reveal those outcomes which, in a sense, are already to be expected given current conditions. How is it possible to look outside the envelope of trend analysis in order to develop robust strategies necessary for your organisation to deal with both likely outcomes and unexpected "black swan" events which can, in an instant, turn an existing paradigm upside down?

Energy Edge partner Decision Strategies International has developed a collaborative strategic tool using a tailored scenario planning process which helps customers to adapt to changing business landscapes while preparing them to identify and capitalize upon the opportunities which can arise from surprising circumstances.

ENERGY SECTOR SCENARIO BUILDING

To help your company build a strategy for dealing with change, Energy Edge has teamed up with DSI to conduct intensive Scenario Planning processes tailored to your positions within the energy and power markets. Working closely with you, we look at how drivers including comparative fuel prices, carbon emission credit prices, policy changes, and relative levels of international competition and political cohesiveness can affect corporate and project outcomes.

THE FUTURE OF THERMAL COAL IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

In January 2011, Energy Edge and DSI facilitated a Scenario Planning workshop on the Future of Thermal Hard Coal in the EU. Participants looked in particular at two drivers - the cost of coal relative to other fuels, and the degree of success of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) - in order to develop a set of reasonable stories around how the demand for coal might evolve in the EU under differing circumstances.

In fleshing out the four alternate "worlds" developed by the participants, indicators that the EU might be headed in one direction or the other were identified, positioning participants to build "robust" strategies across all alternatives.

Read the condensed version of the Workshop report, Scenarios for the Future of the EU Thermal Hard Coal Sector, here (pdf)


WHAT WE CAN OFFER YOU

Working with you, we can identify the questions important to your company and planned projects in order to conduct a tailored scenario tool to help you deal with inherent uncertainties facing the industry.

If you would like to talk more about the Energy Edge /DSI Scenario Planning and its applications, please contact Karl Schultz today.